Our analysis of PitchBook’s 2026 AI Outlook, with a deep dive into Italy’s computational ecosystem.

62% of all AI venture capital between 2022–2025 went into foundation models: that's where you should not be looking right now.

We distilled PitchBook's 2026 "AI Outlook" through a deeptech investor's lens, adding a dedicated analysis on how Italy's computational ecosystem can contribute to these emerging dynamics.

Our take:
→ 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 62% of AI VC capital (188B+ USD) went into foundation models alone. The obvious segment is already crowded, and better risk-adjusted returns now sit in infrastructure and applied domains rather than in building another general-purpose model.

→ 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: Foundation models (~136B USD 2030 TAM, 40% CAGR) and data management software (~155.6B USD, 18% CAGR) are becoming default enterprise infrastructure. Tools, platforms and hardware that make these layers reliable, governable and efficient are structurally more interesting than thin application wrappers sitting on top of them.

→ 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴: Some subsectors combine strong growth, capital efficiency and better exit signals: AI protection in cybersecurity, data management, AI in radiology and warehouse robotics. Take technical risk where the statistics of outcomes are already more favourable.

→ 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲: Grid management and energy optimisation (~$18.3B TAM, ~30% CAGR) and AI datacenter and infrastructure build-out ($1T+) confirm that compute, energy and resilience are core strategic layers of AI, not supporting costs.

→ 𝗔 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘆 — this section goes beyond PitchBook and reflects Obloo's own analysis. Italy is a powerful and underleveraged geography, with the building blocks to generate defensible AI and deep tech companies:
▪ CINECA's Leonardo supercomputer (174.7 petaflops, ~14K NVIDIA A100 GPUs) remains one of Europe's most powerful HPC systems, with the LISA upgrade in 2025 adding 165+ next-generation GPU nodes
▪ Fondazione Chips-IT has a €60M plan (2026–2028) to rebuild Italy's semiconductor design ecosystem, backed by EssilorLuxottica, Bosch and NXP - a direct picks-and-shovels play on AI chip infrastructure
▪ AI4I at OGR Turin bridges scientific R&D and industrial application in manufacturing, automotive and aerospace
▪ AgorAI, launched in April 2025 with Generali, ICTP, SISSA and INFN, is building an AI hub focused on health, agriculture, mobility and finance
▪ Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), SISSA, Politecnico di Milano and Università Bocconi provide the scientific foundation from which defensible IP is built.

The real opportunity is to anchor the AI cycle from its underlying infrastructure and knowledge base.

Source: PitchBook Institutional Research - "2026 Artificial Intelligence Outlook" (December 9, 2025) and Obloo Research.
Full PitchBook report: https://lnkd.in/guVAEMK2